1992: Climate Scientists Tell EU “Billions To Die By 2030”

Time for another visit to the archives, I think. This one concerns a report entitled “The costs of climate change,” Report to the Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XII” and is from July 1992 by O. Hohmeyer and M. Gartner.

The following is a verbatim reprint of the Greenpeace press release covering the report:

Two German researchers, in a report for the European Commission, estimate that the total costs of climate change resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide will exceed $900 trillion ($900 thousand billion).

The researchers, Olav Hohmeyer and Michael Gartner, are from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Karlsruhe. They base their estimates on the following scenarios and cost evaluations. For the value of human life, they use an estimate based on the valuation implicit in the remuneration people expect for risking their lives in dangerous situations. The figure they use, which they call “a very conservative estimate,” is $1 million. For the value of productive land, they use the value of such land in the USA, $30,000 per hectare. As regards the number of deaths, they conclude that by 2030 (the time of doubling of concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, assuming business-as- usual emissions), the following are “likely”:

Starvation: an extra 900 to 1,800 million deaths

Storms: an extra 1.3 million deaths

Heat stress: an extra 1.3 million deaths

Tropical diseases: an extra 540,000 deaths

And costs including the following:

Land lost to sea level rise (18 cm at the time of carbon dioxide doubling), totalling 60 to 220 million square km of productive land: $2.4 trillion. Valued assets affected by sea-level rise (2.4% of the world market valued assets): $530 billion. Storm damage: an extra $20 billion per year, meaning $200 billion over the period.

The authors emphasize that they consider their estimates conservative, and that they have necessarily omitted many incalculable factors, such as the loss of biodiversity and other damage to ecosystems.

Greenpeace Press Release. Billions to Die As A Result of Climate Change In The Next Century?

It’s good to know that this report to the European Commission was “conservative” and they didn’t let panic and hysteria creep into their projections . . .


5 responses to “1992: Climate Scientists Tell EU “Billions To Die By 2030”

  1. Actually 6 billion people will die sometime in the next 30 0r 40 years, just not from climate change.

  2. Yea, they wish!
    Do you think these people with their catastrophe theories would bring all this about to prove them selves right?
    It always seems to start of as a concern of some-sort then it snowballs out of control to be exploited for financial gain.
    It’s well known that Greenpeace has evolved into an extremest organization with extremist views, they also have political representatives who push these extremist views by taming the views and manipulating them to be more publicly acceptable (cute panda & polar bears anyone?) all awhile exploiting them for their own political agendas, and if you look closely at these groups, their original extremist views behind all the fluffy dumbing down are still there.

  3. Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past too.

  4. At his US Senate confirmation hearing on 2-12-09, I guess you could say that President Obama’s Science Czar John Holdren had scaled back the prediction to just one billion people dying by 2020……

    (seen half-way down in this article http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/21/obamas-science-czar-considered-forced-abortions-sterilization-population-growth/ and previously in the actual Senate hearing video at the 119:50 minute point, but the link to the video no longer works: http://commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=9ba25fea-5f68-4211-a181-79ff35a3c6c6 Perhaps a more intrepid searcher can find a new functioning video link)

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