IPCC Prediction for Queensland: less rainfall, longer droughts, drier climate.

I’m sure everyone’s seen the pictures on the news of the dramatic and distressing floods in Queensland, north-eastern Australia. As expected, global warming was blamed for the floods by some, though most news outlets have so far resisted the temptation. Heavy and sustained rainfall is not uncommon in north-eastern Australia, though the recent increase in rainfall is remarkable.

So what was the IPCC regional impact prediction for the area – more rainfall and subsequent flooding? Of course not. Remember, when the last report was compiled, there was a drought, so strangely enough, the IPCC found that droughts would become more frequent as “a change in climate toward drier conditions” took hold there:

Using a transient simulation with the NCAR CCMO GCM at coarse resolution (R15) (Meehl and Washington, 1996), Kothavala (1999) found for northeastern and southeastern Australia that the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicated longer and more severe droughts in the transient simulation at about 2xCO2 conditions than in the control simulation. This is consistent with a more El Niño-like average climate in the enhanced greenhouse simulation; it contrasts with a more ambivalent result by Whetton et al. (1993), who used results from several slab-ocean GCMs and a simple soil water balance model. Similar but less extreme results were found by Walsh et al. (2000) for estimates of meteorological drought in Queensland, based on simulations with the CSIRO RCM at 60-km resolution, nested in the CSIRO Mk2 GCM.


That’s right – the IPCC prediction for north-east Australia (Queensland) was less rainfall, more droughts, and a generally drier climate. In fact, the regional impact report speculates on the effect that “A change in climate toward drier conditions as a result of lower rainfall and higher evaporative demand” would have on Queensland.

And what about the possibility of flooding caused by increased rainfall? Nothing. Not one word.


17 responses to “IPCC Prediction for Queensland: less rainfall, longer droughts, drier climate.

  1. I’m sure they told the Aussie government, but didn’t go public to….
    avoid panic??

  2. And of course, why not spend a few billion on desalinaton plants:

    “We consider ourselves the canary in the coal mine for climate change-induced changes to water supply systems,” said Ross Young, executive director of the Water Services Association of Australia, an umbrella group of the country’s urban water utilities. He described the $13.2 billion as “the cost of adapting to climate change.”


  3. Funny thing seeing that ecoweirdo Higgins piece earlier that tree loving website proclaims the plastic island in the pacific ocean is twice the size of Texas.


  4. I hope this works:

  5. Australia Greens After Record Rains
    Late 2010 dealt farmers in Australia’s “Wheatbelt” a change in fortune. After three consecutive years of drought, rains finally drenched southeastern Australia. August brought record-setting precipitation to parts of New South Wales and Victoria, and September 2010 was Australia’s wettest September on record.
    December 23, 2010

    An it got worse!

  6. Congratulations HTL you are being quoted in the Telegraph Dellingpole gives you a great write up in his latest post.

  7. Haunting the Library see this link. A history of droughts in Australia. Very illuminating. ;O)

    “For central Australia, the late summer and early fall of 2010 was eventful, starting with rain, and leading to floods, plants, and finally insects. Between the end of February and early March, unusually heavy rain fell across Australia’s dry interior. Parts of central Australia received more rain in 11 days than they usually do in a year, and some places recorded rainfall totals more than double the total rainfall for all of 2009, said the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

    The extreme rain brought floods, but it also turned the desert green, as shown in this vegetation index image.”
    Earth Observatory

    When will the Warmists realise that this past drought is part of a natural cycle?

  8. More on desalination:

    The plant would potentially feed into a “water grid” the concept that the Queensland Government is developing together with South-East Queensland Water and local government. A larger plant was being planned for Sydney to be operational by mid 2008, however, plans are currently on hold. The costs of desalination are a major consideration and need to be evaluated in the context of other options.

    Dec 17, 2010 – Solve Climate News
    Unlike Calif., Australia Has No Choice But to Desalinate Their Sea Water

    December 05, 2010 – Couriermail
    Queensland scraps the desal plant

  9. 27th December 2010
    “AFTER recent heavy rain some Queensland dams, including Awoonga Dam, are overflowing, causing stocked barramundi to spill over into the waterways below.”


    5th January 2011
    CALLIDE Dam [Queensland], which previously relied on water piped from Awoonga Dam, is overflowing for the first time.”


  10. There was an Australian on the radio last night who commented that the people who had lived in the area longer had built their houses on stilts because of things like flooding – as well as dissuading cohabitation by the local creepie crawlies. There has been an explosion of house building – all on ground level -which is how houses are built in the south of the country.

    I wonder if they also built on the flood plains? Funnily enough I was in Darwin some 40 years ago and most of the houses there were also built on stilts. Obviously the old ideas are still the best!

  11. Pingback: IPCC Green Doctor Prescribes End to Democracy to Solve Global Warming « Anti Oligarch

  12. Great site guys! Global warming is a huge scam, and I’m so pleased people are now waking up to that.

  13. Pingback: Not The Australian Droughts That The IPCC Predicted | PA Pundits - International

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